Arizona Housing Forecast 2026–2027

Greater Phoenix's median sale price held at $445K in Mid-Q3, with ~23.4K active listings, ~4.3 mo of supply, and 64 median days on market.
List prices kept easing while closed prices stayed relatively steady, giving Arizona buyers room to negotiate credits, buydowns, inspections, and better value per sq-ft.
In Greater Phoenix, builders often competed with incentives, so comparing net monthly cost instead of headline list price became a smarter resale-versus-new test.
For sellers, the guidance was clear: price from the past 45 days of local comps, plan concessions early, and reset homes lingering past 60-70 days.
The outlook into Early-Q1 2027 called for flat-to-mildly-soft closes, ongoing concession room, and close attention to near-7% mortgages, builder buydowns, insurance, and cooling costs.